I have no idea what I'm talking about
#life 2 min.
I have no idea what I’m talking about here, and you should not trust me.
A decade ago, I predicted bitcoin would fail. You could argue it kind of did: its promise to disrupt legacy currencies and banking clearly wasn’t fulfilled for the same reasons I outlined in that post. It’s not widely used as a currency or a medium of exchange by real people - it’s just a speculative asset.
Yet it is still very much around, and it’s not going anywhere. I already felt it was overhyped when trading at $300-$600 back then. In 2024, it’s holding somewhere around $60k. Seems I severely underestimated the market for speculative assets.
Then I wrote something about meme stocks and bubbles. Well, GameStop is still trading way above where it was before 2021. Stocks overall are way above their 2021 price, back when it already felt overpriced. I’m glad I did not decide to wait for them to crash and kept dollar-cost-averaging the whole time.
I also wrote why Apple Car would make sense, and three years later, they canceled the whole project. Oh well.
Back when the war started, I really felt that Putin would not get away with this. Of all the things I’ve been wrong about, this one hurts the most. That might still end up being true, but I wouldn’t bet on it anymore.
I don’t know if I would bet on anything anymore. Next time, I should put my money on the opposite of whatever I think about the future.